Don’t Wait Until January: What the U.S. Midterms Mean for MENA Business

For businesses across the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the November 3 U.S. midterm elections felt both distant and immediate. Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, and boardrooms from Riyadh to Cairo are asking what a divided Washington means for trade, technology, investment and security. At APCO’s November 9 briefing, held in partnership with AmCham Dubai and The Northern Emirates, the panel’s answer was calm but urgent: Expect continuity in the relationship, but Congress now has more say, so engagement with Washington has to start well before the new Congress sits in January.

Congress Is Back in the Picture and Engagement Must Widen

Panelists read the result as largely domestic and familiar, since midterms often shift Congress away from the president’s party. Gulf partners have worked with administrations and congresses of both parties, and long-term plans such as Vision 2030 and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) diversification agenda do not move with election cycles. What changes is the number of decision-makers who matter. Voters were driven mainly by affordability, the panel said, but foreign policy, including the war with Iran, played a bigger role than usual.

Divided government will not produce much legislation. The president can veto bills and Democrats lack the Senate votes to override one, so expect messaging bills to stall. Congress’s real leverage lies in the power of the purse and in oversight. The panel expects closer scrutiny of defense sales, technology transfers and other security partnerships that moved with little congressional pushback in recent years. Notification periods for major arms sales to Gulf partners could be used more actively, which would slow things down.

Timing matters too. The lame-duck session has begun, and the administration has shown it can move faster than Congress can respond. The 2028 presidential race will color every vote, and the panel expects Republicans to split with the president on specific issues rather than as a bloc.

Technology, Trade and Security Will Face New Scrutiny

Data centers have become a lightning rod. Communities have raised concerns about energy and water costs, new transmission lines and a lack of transparency, and some facilities sit close to homes. Unions, meanwhile, welcome the construction jobs, which leaves lawmakers in both parties in a difficult position. The panel saw the debate as less about whether to build than about how projects enter communities, and it expects some technology companies to favor data-center-friendly states. For Gulf investors eyeing the U.S. market, community engagement is now part of the business case.

On trade, tariffs rest largely on executive authority, so Congress cannot easily undo them. It can, however, use subpoenas, hearings and testimony from the U.S. Trade Representative to press for exemption and comment processes, which could slow the pace of surprise announcements and give companies a way to make their case. The panel noted that China remains one of the few issues that unites both parties, though Democrats are likely to view tariffs through an affordability lens.

On security, the panel expects Democrats and some Republicans to try to constrain the war with Iran through War Powers measures and funding language in defense spending and authorization bills, although a veto and the legislative calendar limit what they can achieve. Qatar and Oman remain central to mediation, and Washington needs both. For Gulf businesses, regional security is the first priority, with heightened risk to trade routes, energy and digital infrastructure expected to persist through 2027 and 2028. Supply chains should be checked and contingency plans in place.

The Gulf Is Diversifying, Not Retreating

Panelists described Gulf strategy as diversification and strategic hedging, not a simple search for options. Expect more bilateral visits, agreements and trade negotiations with China and India over the next two years, alongside more cautious, public engagement with Washington instead of back-channel talks. That includes artificial intelligence (AI), a strategic priority that Gulf governments will pursue with both the United States and China. The message from Gulf capitals will stay consistent: They are diversifying, but remain committed to the partnership with the United States.

The panel’s advice to boards was practical. Map where your business is exposed in Washington, by issue and by decision-maker, and engage early rather than waiting for January. Build a stakeholder map and long-term relationships with new members of Congress and their staff, many of whom have long careers ahead. Rebalance, too: Over the past two years, many companies and governments have leaned toward one camp, and relationships on both sides of the aisle matter. Above all, stay focused on core business priorities and don’t get caught in the swirl.

Key takeaways for businesses include:

• Expect continuity in the relationship but not the process: Congress will play a larger role in oversight, budgets, trade and technology.
• Map your exposure in Washington by issue and decision-maker, and start engaging now.
• Build relationships on both sides of the aisle, including with new members and their staff.
• Expect scrutiny of defense, technology transfers and data-center projects, and engage communities early.
• Stress-test supply chains and contingency plans for trade, energy and digital infrastructure risks.

APCO’s MENA and global Public Affairs & Government Relations teams help organizations map their exposure in Washington and build relationships with decision-makers across the political spectrum. To discuss what the midterm results mean for your organization, contact APCO’s MENA team. For regular updates on the outcome and other global developments, visit APCO’s Agenda 360 page.

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