The Future of Crypto May Still Be Built Without CLARITY

The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act is the closest Congress has come to setting out a real market framework for crypto assets. The House passed its version of the bill last summer, and since then it has moved through the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees. Still, a few hot-button issues remain unresolved: how stablecoin rewards should be treated, where liability sits in decentralized finance (DeFi) and whether public officials should be allowed to profit from crypto ventures while in office. Right now, prediction markets on Polymarket put the chances of the bill becoming law in 2026 at around 48%.

The CLARITY Act continues to move through Congress, but the window for passage is narrowing. Senate Banking and Agriculture staff are working to reconcile their versions into a bill that can reach the floor. A compressed calendar before the midterms as well as crowded legislative agenda that includes a housing bill, a farm bill and a looming deadline for recertifying a surveillance law heightened by the war in Iran compete for attention. Against that backdrop, the odds of the bill reaching the floor by July 4 or even before August recess are slim.

For companies that have already put time, capital and resources into digital assets, the idea that Congress could once again fall short on delivering on the rules of the road for market structure is understandably frustrating. After years of navigating regulation by enforcement, inconsistent guidance and overlapping jurisdictional claims, many firms are simply looking for something more stable to build on.

But uncertainty isn’t new here. If anything, it’s been the default setting for most of crypto’s existence. And interestingly, the companies that have tended to come out strongest haven’t always been the ones waiting for perfect rules; they’ve been the ones willing to keep building while the rules were still forming.

That doesn’t mean uncertainty is good for markets. It isn’t. Clear legislation would almost certainly accelerate institutional adoption, reduce compliance friction and give firms more confidence to scale responsibly. However, the absence of immediate legislative clarity does not indicate that the U.S. digital economy is stagnating. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are still actively shaping the space through guidance, interpretive actions, enforcement discretion, and evolving frameworks. Meanwhile, the distinction between traditional finance and decentralized finance infrastructure continues to blur, as policymakers increasingly operate under the assumption that future capital markets will, at least partly, function on the blockchain.

The reality is that the digital asset train has already left the station, and a temporary delay for CLARITY is not enough to slam the brakes on the industry. Below are five considerations companies should keep in mind in a market still being shaped as much by regulatory signaling as by formal legislation:

1. Treat the minimum effective dose of regulation as the operating reality: Even without the CLARITY Act, the SEC and CFTC are likely to continue shaping the digital asset market through no-action letters, interpretive guidance, safe harbor frameworks and other agency-level mechanisms. The broader shift away from regulation by enforcement and toward a minimum effective dose of regulation appears likely to endure. With institutional ownership of the asset class on the rise and digital assets rapidly becoming tied to national strategy, firms should treat agency signaling as the de facto rulebook.
2. Build a flexible compliance strategy around evolving agency guidance: Compliance strategies should be built around evolving SEC and CFTC guidance rather than waiting for Congress to act. At the same time, the absence of a clear federal framework increases the likelihood of litigation, a growing patchwork of state-level rules and heightened scrutiny from risk-averse regulators. In this environment, companies should engage consistently with policymakers and regulators across the aisle to be better positioned to navigate evolving requirements.
3. Engage early and often with regulators: In an operating environment defined by agency-level guidance rather than formal rulemaking, firms should engage early and often with regulators to showcase their regulatory readiness and proactively shape how guidance evolves in practice.
4. Prepare for institutional capital to remain cautious: Without a clear legal framework for digital assets, large pools of institutional capital are likely to remain cautious. Firms should expect some institutions to remain on the sidelines altogether, with others continuing to build infrastructure abroad as they wait for greater certainty before scaling operations in the United States.
5. Remain ready for an eventual legislative revival: With the legislative calendar tightening and key issues still unresolved, firms should be prepared to scale quickly if federal clarity emerges in the future. Between concerns around capital flight, unresolved jurisdictional overlap between the SEC and CFTC and sustained industry lobbying, the legislation is more likely delayed than abandoned

Greater clarity will undoubtedly accelerate market development, but the industry cannot afford to pause while Washington debates. Companies and developers are already taking decisive action by building in line with agency guidance. Institutions, meanwhile, are actively increasing their investments in digital assets, and governments worldwide are establishing comprehensive frameworks for crypto assets. The firms that will emerge victorious in this landscape will be those that embrace flexibility, align themselves with evolving agency regulations, and remain poised to scale—whether through clarity or future advancements.

Learn more more about how APCO is helping companies navigate the digital asset revolution.