2 Shocks, 1 Lesson: El Niño, the Strait of Hormuz and the New Math of Energy Security

As global climate experts move across this year’s Bonn climate summer meetings and London Climate Action Week, two very different kinds of pressure were converging on the global economy. One was geopolitical, months of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil moves. The other was climatic, the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) confirmation that El Niño conditions are developing in the Pacific and are likely to shape weather worldwide throughout the rest of the year. Different in origin, the two shocks press on the same set of vulnerabilities: energy, food, water and cost.

The Hormuz story is, at its core, about dependency. When shipping through the strait was choked off earlier this year, the effect rippled far beyond the Gulf. fuel shortages appeared in parts of Asia and the inflationary pressure was felt by households and businesses with no connection to the Middle East. While the long-anticipated peace deal seems to finally be in reach, with it, the reopening of the waterway and lift of the naval blockade, the reprieve is fragile. Mines remain in the water, threat levels remain elevated and the risk of renewed closure has not disappeared. The lesson for policymakers and business leaders is uncomfortable but clear: an economy built on a handful of maritime chokepoints is an economy exposed to forces it cannot control.

There is a sharper irony beneath the disruption: A shock like this pushes the world toward more fossil fuel, not less. As the strait tightened, members of the International Energy Agency drew down strategic reserves, Washington temporarily eased sanctions on some Russian and Iranian oil to keep supply moving and tankers rerouted onto longer, more fuel-intensive voyages.  A conflict that disrupts the flow of oil almost inevitably slows the transition away from it. Yet with so much of the global economy still dependent on hydrocarbons moving through a handful of chokepoints, reducing that reliance during a crisis is nearly impossible. That vulnerability is not an argument for delay—it is a case for acceleration. Diversifying energy sources and supply routes is a climate, security and economic imperative. Every barrel a country does not need to import through a contested strait is a barrel of resilience.

The second pressure system is quieter but no less consequential. Most models suggest the event will be at the least moderate, but possibly stronger. El Niño tends to push global temperatures up and to sharpen extremes at both ends; more intense drought in some regions, heavier rainfall and flooding in others and a higher risk of heatwaves. Its footprint reaches agriculture, water systems, energy demand and supply chains across entire regions.

Stacked on top of an already strained economic moment, an El Niño year raises the stakes for food and water security. Drought reduces harvests and drives up commodity prices; flooding damages infrastructure and displaces communities; heat strains power grids at the very moment demand for cooling peaks. These are not distant risks—they are the kind of disruptions that move insurance premiums, commodity markets and national budgets within a single season.

What makes mid-2026 distinctive is the convergence. A geopolitical shock and a climatic one are landing on the same fault lines and, too often, the same communities. The countries and households least able to absorb a spike in fuel or food prices are the ones most exposed to both. For decision-makers, the central insight is that climate and security are not separate files to be managed by separate teams. They are dimensions of the same question about how resilient our systems are when more than one thing goes wrong at once.

For businesses, supply chains built for efficiency alone are brittle when a strait closes or a harvest fails. Resilience now means diversification and a serious accounting of climate exposure. For governments, it means early warning, adaptation and a lower-carbon energy base that doubles as a hedge against geopolitical risk. This is why the work underway in Bonn matters beyond the negotiating rooms. These meetings set the groundwork for COP31 and are a reminder that climate action is also an economic and security policy. The Paris Agreement was built on the premise that managing climate risk is a shared, long-term project. The events of this year suggest that the project is also an urgent, near-term one.

The question for leaders is whether they will treat these converging pressures as connected or continue to address them in isolation. The strait may reopen, and the El Niño may pass, but the underlying lesson will remain. In a world of compounding shocks, resilience is no longer optional—it is the strategy.