I still remember sitting across from a client who wanted us to take a position that would have alienated half our other clients. The data was clear—the financial opportunity was significant. The spreadsheets practically screamed “yes.” But something in my gut said “wait.” That moment taught me one of the most valuable lessons of my career: the best decisions aren’t made by data or intuition alone, but by the delicate dance between them.
Here’s the thing about leadership that business schools don’t always teach you: you rarely have all the information you’d like when making critical decisions. In my 40-plus years building APCO, I’ve learned that waiting for perfect clarity is a luxury leaders can’t afford. Instead, we must master the art of informed intuition.
When Numbers Tell Only Half the Story
I founded our research team because I believe deeply in data. “Data helps you see your blind spots,” I always say. It gives you the foundation, reveals patterns you might miss and protects you from your own biases. But I’ve also learned that data tells you what is, not always what could be.
Take the pivotal moment when I had the chance to sell my company. The data was compelling—I didn’t have majority control, the safe financial choice was clear and accepting the buyout would have eliminated risk. But something deeper told me this wasn’t just about numbers. It was about vision, potential and the belief that I could find a way forward.
I chose the riskier path: raising money to buy out the other shareholders instead of walking away. By all logical measures, it was the more dangerous choice. But I understood something the spreadsheets couldn’t capture—I knew I could find the business, find the investors, find whatever was needed to make it work. The human factor, that intangible belief in what’s possible, made all the difference.
What I’ve discovered is that you have to see what the data is telling you, but then ask: are there other circumstances that countervail what the numbers suggest? It’s like being a lawyer in a courtroom—you might win the case on facts but lose in the court of public opinion. The human factor is what makes the difference.
The Opportunity-First Mindset
Early in my career, people thought I was reckless because I always looked at opportunities before risks. My frame of reference was always about what we could gain rather than what we might lose. But here’s what they didn’t see—I only took on risks I personally thought I could manage.
APCO’s StoryBook exemplifies this approach. The risk? Hiring someone without knowing exactly what they’d do. But I knew John Defterios was well-connected, understood the region, and could at minimum open doors. We created StoryBook together, and once we saw the need and knew people would pay appropriately for it, we expanded. The risk was in the first step, but each subsequent step decreased that risk.
I’d ask myself: how far down the road can we go if this doesn’t work? What can I control? Am I putting other things in jeopardy? It’s not about being fearless—it’s about being calculated in your courage.
The Weight of People Decisions
Let me be honest about something we don’t discuss enough in leadership forums: the emotional toll of tough decisions. When you’re in a people business—and every business is ultimately a people business—caring about your team is both an asset and a handicap. You think about their lives, the impact your decisions will have on their families.
There’s no magic formula for managing these emotions. It’s a roller coaster with big highs and devastating lows. Some of the lows aren’t even your fault, but they happen anyway. What I’ve learned is that if you don’t care, you’re in the wrong business. If you care too much, you’ll be paralyzed. The key is accepting this emotional weight as part of the job.
Trust as the Ultimate Leadership Tool
Perhaps my most important leadership principle is this: if you give people responsibility, you have to give them authority; you can’t do one without the other. There have been times when I’ve delegated things knowing the person would never do it the way I would. But that doesn’t make their way wrong—it makes it different.
Sometimes I disagreed with decisions but let them proceed anyway. Why? Maybe they were right, and I was wrong. They were closer to the situation. You can’t hire experienced people, empower them to act, then stop them from acting. That doesn’t work.
The Stubborn Flexibility Balance
Looking back, what’s served me best is what I call “stubborn flexibility.” There’s a crucial balance between knowing what you want—having a clear direction—and being arrogant or not listening to anyone. You need to be stubborn enough to be consistent about your path but open enough to truly listen.
When someone changes my mind, it’s usually because they’ve given me a perspective I hadn’t considered. They’ve shown me something I couldn’t see from where I stood. That’s the value of building teams with diverse viewpoints and the courage to express them.
In my experience, the most misunderstood aspect of leadership is how differently people view your decisions. “That’s the hardest part of leadership—everybody sees their situation through their own glasses.” You make a difficult decision for the greater good of the organization, and even when you explain it carefully, people may only see how it affects them personally. But if you don’t make these hard choices, the consequences affect everyone.
The path forward?
- Embrace both data and intuition.
- Take smart risks.
- Accept the emotional weight of leadership.
- Trust your people with real authority.
- And remember, the biggest risk is often not taking one at all.
