The year 2024 saw two major trends in East Asia—one political, the other security-related. First, significant political upheaval in the leading economies of Japan and South Korea in the second half of the year spilled over into January and has set the tone for further domestic political uncertainty in 2025. Second, the deployment of North Korean troops to support Russian forces in its war against Ukraine served as a reminder of the underlying security threat posed by the North Korean regime to the region and beyond.
In Japan, elections in late October saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lose its parliamentary majority in the lower house for the first time since 2009, amid simmering public discontent with a slush fund scandal. The result—the LDP’s second worst in its history and the first time since 1955 that no party won more than 200 seats—reflects public discontent with the LDP in the wake of the slush fund scandal and the largely-unexplained resignation of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in September. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba begins 2025 with a shaky domestic mandate and weak international profile.
Meanwhile, recent events in South Korea make Japan look like a bastion of political stability. In early December an embattled President Yoon Suk-yeol, weakened by opposition gains in parliamentary elections in April and a growing corruption scandal centering on his wife, briefly imposed martial law, citing alleged efforts by the opposition to destroy the country’s liberal democratic order. Yoon survived an initial vote of no confidence but was impeached soon after – only to be followed by acting president Han Duck-soo later that month. The new year began with the latest acting president, Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok, attempting to reassure both the United States and Japan of its commitment to trilateral co-operation. With a presidential election due by mid-February following Yoon’s impeachment, the opposition Democratic Party (DP) is expected to challenge the ruling People Power Party (PPP) amid the domestic political chaos.
In Japan and South Korea, the third great power in the region, China, is expected to benefit. In contrast to Yoon’s pro-U.S. PPP, South Korea’s DP is more closely aligned with Beijing than Washington. At the same time Japan is already seeking to improve its historically fraught relationship with China, not least in anticipation of strained ties with the United States after President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House on January 20. Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing in late December, agreeing to host Foreign Minister Wang in Japan in 2025. Stronger ties with Japan and South Korea will consolidate China’s regional status to the detriment of the United Sates—a task that will no doubt be easier with Seoul than with Tokyo.
Geopolitical developments last year are also fuelling security tensions in East Asia in 2025. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first-ever visit to Pyongyang last June reflects the growing military importance of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s regime to Moscow in the face of U.S.-led sanctions over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Following Putin’s visit, at least 10,000 North Korean troops were deployed to Ukraine, with up to 3,000 reported killed or injured by late December.
Russia-North Korea co-operation will be a concern to all East Asian countries, but specifically to China, for two reasons. First, Putin’s visit reminds China that Russia has other allies in the region—albeit far smaller and far less predictable. Second, North Korea’s direct military support for Russia brings the uncomfortable diplomatic reality of the Ukraine conflict to China’s doorstep, placing the issue of China’s official impartiality back in the international spotlight at a time when European governments are increasingly worried by the Russian threat but also considering whether to welcome Chinese investment in their economies.
Conclusion
Where do these political and security developments leave East Asia in 2025? The region will certainly remain a hub for technological innovation and digitalization, driven by market-leading tech corporations across Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Yet the incoming Trump Administration is likely to test historical alliances and increase trade tensions with China, thus potentially heightening regional security risks. The impact on supply chains and investor confidence in key markets will reverberate throughout the year. More than ever, multinational companies operating in East Asia will need to review their risk management strategies and keep a close eye on regional political, economic and security developments.
