Voters went to the polls on Friday, 29 November to elect the new Dáil, the lower house of the Irish parliament. The upper house, the Seanad, is indirectly elected and appointed and won’t take its final shape until a new government is in office.
Unlike in many other countries, voters chose not to punish the incumbents who were in charge during the COVID-19/high inflation era. The campaign was dominated by the question of how to reconcile the healthy public finances, boosted by a massive €14 billion tax windfall awarded to a reluctant Ireland after a EU court ruling, with voter concerns about the cost of living, housing and health services. Essentially, the government asked voters to trust them to continue their centre-right approach to public finances, while the opposition, mostly on the political left, wanted to boost public spending significantly.
Before the election there had been much excitement and/or concern that, as with other elections in Europe and elsewhere this year, there would be a jump to the extremes. The hard left Sinn Féin, with its links to the terrorist Provisional Irish Republican Army, had been soaring high, enjoying a 15% lead over the rest of the parties in mid-2022. But their popularity began to slip over the last 12 months, with internal scandals coming to the fore, and their results in the European Parliament elections in June were underwhelming.
Replacing them as the most vocal new voices in opposition were the hard right, opposed to Ireland’s relatively relaxed immigration policy and whipping up populist outrage over often fictional crimes supposedly perpetrated by immigrants. These candidates were generally not organised in a party structure, but running as independents; the Irish system, unlike most developed democracies, allows politicians with a solid local base of support to operate outside the party system.
An extra element of spice was added at the last moment when a notorious organised crime figure stood as a candidate in the same district as both the leader of Sinn Féin and an outgoing government minister who is also president of the Eurogroup. Irish electoral districts elect between three and five teachtaí dála (TDs)—members of the Dáil–so it was entirely possible that all three could get in.
The campaign stubbornly failed to move the opinion polls, Sinn Féin remaining deadlocked with both of the two main government parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (who between them have been in power since the independence of the then Irish Free State in 1922). An exit poll on Friday, 29 November showed Sinn Féin ahead of Fine Gael by a hair, with Fianna Fáil close behind.
Shift From 90 Years of Dominance
As the results started to come in on Saturday, 30 November, however, it turned out that exactly the reverse was the case. At the time of this writing—Monday, 2 December—Fianna Fáil, who sit with the liberal Renew group in the European Parliament and are members of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party (ALDE), are ahead with 21.9% of the votes and 48 seats; Fine Gael, who are part of the centre-right European People’s Party, are second on vote share with 20.8% and 38 seats; Sinn Féin came third with 19.0%, but nipped ahead of Fine Gael with 39 seats. All have won more seats than in 2020, thanks to the expansion of the Dáil. Fianna Fáil leader Micheal Martin is certain to lead the next government as taioseach, having already held the position from 2020 to 2022.
For the two government parties, it is a very small decline from their 2020 results, not quite bucking the trend for incumbents suffering in 2024; for Sinn Féin, it’s a more significant drop of 5%. The numbers don’t reflect a significant turnover in personnel—almost half of Fine Gael’s TDs are new to the system, and a number of veterans from other parties retired or were defeated. However, the anticipated surge of support for the far right never happened, and although the gangland chief polled well in central Dublin, he lost to the Labour Party after the necessary votes had been transferred. Immigration turned out not to be such a big concern for voters.
The two main parties in the outgoing government together have 86 seats, not quite the magic 88 needed for a majority in the 174-seat Dáil chamber. Their junior coalition partner, the Green Party, had a very bad election, losing all but one of their 12 seats, perhaps indicating that cost-of-living issues now trump climate change for voters. It seems likely that out of more than 20 TDs elected as independents and from micro-parties, a sufficient handful will be found whose price for supporting a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition government can easily be afforded by the coalition partners.
There has been some speculation that a new government coalition could include two centre-left parties with 11 seats each, the Social Democrats—whose leader actually gave birth on election day—and the Labour Party. There are clearly currents of thought in both parties leading in that direction. It seems more probable, however, that they will prefer to stay in opposition and build for a future left-wing alternative, implicitly with Sinn Fein and the even harder left People Before Profit—though the positions of the various left parties may be tough to reconcile even in opposition, never mind in a potential future government.
So, after a volatile period for Irish politics since the havoc wrought by the 2008 financial crisis, the electorate this time seems to have settled for continuity. Irish politics has shifted from 90 years of domination by two large parties, to a situation where there are three medium-sized parties and some smaller centre-left and left minor parties, whose support is primarily urban.
One veteran commentator quipped that “there is plenty of opposition to the government, but no alternative.” Sinn Féin remain in the lead in the forced coalition government of Northern Ireland, but their results in the Republic hardly boost the case for an urgent consideration of reunification. The traditional ruling parties have been given another chance; but the voters have given them little room for manoeuvre.
