Finding the Chance in Mischance 

Contours in the Fog

As we move into 2026, turbulence is clouding the horizon. A political centre, embodied by globalisation and liberal economics, is struggling to hold. Mandates are thin, coalitions brittle and fiscal headroom scarce. Across democracies, governments are navigating with limited consensus and shortened horizons. And in compressed news cycles, every development feels existential.  

This is seen not least in global attention disproportionately locked on the latest actions, signals and anticipated moves of the Trump White House.  

When everyone is staring at the same picture, the details that matter drift to the edges. Too much energy is spent lamenting a lost order—past alliances, pivotal relationships and once reliable trade partnerships that have disappeared or eroded. 

 But by stepping back beyond the headlines and the daily churn a different story comes into view. Structural forces are quietly shaping the year ahead in a story of reconfiguration.  

Once unlikely partners—regulators, standards bodies, sovereign investors, cities and private wealth—are now working in loose formation, adapting in real time to a more fragmented global environment. They are not waiting for permission. They are building the scaffolding of what comes next. 

Europe’s Emancipation?

Davos highlighted Europe’s shift from reactive posture to long-term strategic restructuring. In her address, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen framed this agenda around strategic independence, diversifying partners, strengthening industrial capacity and reducing critical vulnerabilities. 

 She pointed to progress toward an EU–India trade agreement that would link Europe to nearly two billion consumers, followed by a trip to India for Republic Day. This reflects Europe’s diversification agenda, also seen in the EU–Mercosur agreement, opening a market of more than 700 million people. Likewise, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to China signals a push by major European leaders to reset and expand strategic relationships. 

 These external partnerships are matched by internal reforms: the creation of EU Inc., accelerating energy interconnection, advancing capital markets union and building industrial scale in clean technology, artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and defense. The aim is not decoupling but durable optionality, ensuring Europe can operate effectively regardless of geopolitical swings. 

 European leaders were unified in their message: resilience through diversification, capacity through integration and competitiveness through scale. Europe is not waiting for global stability to return; it is building the foundations to navigate instability with confidence. Perhaps the Draghi Report on Competitiveness will finally come to fruition. 

Variable Geometry: Coalitions That Can Move

Leaders in Davos converged around a new operating logic: variable geometry, flexible coalitions formed to act where traditional blocs stall.   

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spearheaded this call, warning that middle powers must organize collectively in a world where coercive tactics are redefining norms. Canada’s recent record—completing roughly twelve new trade agreements—shows how midsized economies are adapting through proactive dealmaking and diversified partnerships. 

This model is already taking shape elsewhere, seen in the G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan coordinating standards, offtakes and derisking tools to reduce reliance on concentrated refining hubs and in North America’s 2026 United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement 

(USMCA) review, which will revisit rules of origin, digital, energy and labour provisions. 

Simply put, global cooperation is no longer defined by universal alignment but by coalitions capable of acting with speed, purpose and strategic focus. 

Private Capital Steps Forward

In earlier eras, prominent business leaders often played the role of informal stabilizers. In 2026, with political centres fragile and businesses constrained by shorter cycles, another actor is moving forward: private capital, particularly family offices and low-profile individuals with long horizons and values anchored missions.  

Family offices are shifting toward infrastructure, resilience assets and private credit—long duration sectors that reinforce public goods and national capacity. They are also investing heavily in defence and security technologies, becoming increasingly influential in areas once dominated by institutional capital. In the Middle East, family offices are institutionalizing rapidly and partnering with governments on education, health care and sustainable development. Their comparative strength is continuity and principle, rather than speed, qualities that fill a widening gap in political and corporate leadership.  

Family offices are pairing capital with philanthropy to unlock public finance and seed first mile delivery. The rationale is powerful: every dollar invested in adaptation can generate more than $10 in avoided losses and social benefits, creating a natural alignment with multigenerational stewardship.  

At COP30 and through adjacent initiatives, for instance, several major family-backed philanthropies stepped forward in ways that illustrate how private capital is beginning to occupy new public interest space, accelerating climate health and resilience.  

The Power Behind the Plug

The defining race of this decade is not about applications but infrastructure. The International Energy Agency (IEA)projects datacentre electricity demand will double to ~945 TWh by 2030, driven by AI workloads. Interconnection queues, water constraints and slow permitting now form the core strategic bottleneck. 

The race for technological advantage is ultimately a race for clean, reliable, scalable power and water. 

In the United States, permitting delays of up to five years are pushing companies toward behind the meter generation and multistate portfolios. Europe is tying datacentre approvals to grid upgrades and sustainable cooling. Those who frontload infrastructure and partner early with public and private capital will shape the next frontier. 

The Wireframe of the Future

Stepping back from the daily churn—and the fixation on Washington—a clearer picture emerges. A new multipolar order is forming, shaped not just by superpowers or rising midsized states but by new centres of influence: private capital, cities, assertive regulators, standards bodies, sovereign investors and long horizon family offices. 

 In rapidly adapting formations, these actors are already sketching the wireframe of what comes next.  

They are not waiting for stability to return.
They are building the architecture of the future in real time.