China’s 2025 Two Sessions: What We’re Watching

February 24, 2025

Beijing will soon welcome thousands of delegates for the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress—China’s national legislature—and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference—an advisory body. Known as the “Two Sessions,” these meetings are among the most important events in China’s political calendar.

The centerpiece of the Two Sessions is the Government Work Report, which sets policy priorities and national economic targets for the year. Premier Li Qiang is expected to deliver the report on March 5, making this his second such address since taking office in 2023. The following days will likely feature press conferences with various senior leaders, including Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi.

The sessions provide a valuable insight into the tone and direction of government planning for the year. Detailed policy announcements are not expected, with these developed and released in subsequent months.

This year’s sessions come at a challenging moment for Beijing, as it prepares for an uncertain relationship with the new Trump administration while aiming to sustain a stimulus push that boosted last quarter’s GDP growth.

Here are some of the things we’ll be watching closely:

Growth Target and Fiscal Stimulus

The GDP growth target, given in the Government Work Report, will provide an indication of how Beijing views China’s economic outlook and the impact of tariffs and other headwinds. A reportedly planned target of around 5% would exceed forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (4.6%) and some other observers.

Together with the GDP growth target, key budget figures will signal China’s fiscal policy for 2025. China has already laid out its plans here: December’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) produced a communiqué pledging a higher budget deficit and increased issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds and local government special-purpose bonds. These figures will reveal how much Beijing is willing to spend in 2025 as it continues the stimulus push launched in September.

Consumption

Boosting consumers’ willingness to spend is top of mind for China’s senior leaders. At the CEWC, they listed a push to “vigorously boost consumption” and expand domestic demand as the number one task for 2025, above industrial policy (the top task in 2023). The expansion of a trade-in program for home appliances and new subsidies for digital goods purchases quickly followed in January. A recent pledge to increase support for trade-ins suggests that the program still has room to grow in 2025.

Beijing’s plan for boosting consumption also extends beyond these measures. Official statements since September have pledged efforts to increase incomes, alleviate the burdens of low- and middle-income groups, and raise pensions and health insurance subsidies. Will further details on this support be unveiled at the Two Sessions?

Another important piece of China’s consumption puzzle is real estate. Beijing began a new policy push to stabilize the sector in September and has vowed further support this year. As property is the main store of wealth for many Chinese households, the sector’s trajectory in 2025 will have a bearing on consumer confidence.

Private Sector

A recent meeting between President Xi Jinping and some of China’s leading business figures has focused attention on Beijing’s approach to the private sector. In a speech emphasizing its importance, Xi said that action will be taken to address challenges for private businesses, including high financing costs and arbitrary fines. Regulators have promptly followed up with pledges to reduce market access barriers and increase credit support. Businesses will be watching for further actions—as well as measures to boost consumption—at the Two Sessions.

Market competition is another focus for the sector. Fierce price wars are underway in some domestic industries, such as electric vehicles and solar panels, and rising tariff barriers in the United States and other markets threaten to sharpen competition even more. Beijing has signaled its intention to overcome this problem: senior leaders called out “rat-race irrational competition” in December and pledged to optimize market supervision and strengthen industry self-discipline earlier this month.

Foreign Policy

With a new administration in the White House, all eyes are on Beijing’s approach to U.S.-China relations. Despite President Trump’s swift imposition of tariffs, Foreign Minister Wang Yi has continued to emphasize the importance of global cooperation in recent high-profile speeches. Beijing’s response to Trump’s policies thus far has been relatively measured. Nonetheless, speaking at the Munich Security Conference (MSC) earlier this month, Wang made it clear that China would retaliate against any further unilateral U.S. sanctions, leaving the door open for an escalation in tensions.

As the United States overhauls transatlantic relations, China is seeking stronger ties with the European Union. At the MSC, Wang positioned China as a stable partner and called for deeper Sino-EU relations. He also made his first official visit to the United Kingdom in a decade, underscoring China’s intention to deepen bilateral ties.

Insight into China’s strategy for managing these relationships in 2025 is likely to emerge during Wang’s press conference at the Two Sessions.

Climate and Energy

This year stands at a significant point on China’s decarbonization pathway as the country approaches its 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030). Some of China’s key climate goals fall within this timeframe, including a commitment to peak carbon emissions before 2030. The Two Sessions will indicate Beijing’s immediate goals and priorities on this longer pathway. Key points to watch for include actions to reduce carbon emissions and signals on the coal transition.

With “new quality productive forces” continuing to garner attention, green technology is poised to play a pivotal role in 2025, particularly in renewables, energy storage and electric vehicles. China met its wind and solar power installation target of 1,200 gigawatts in 2024, six years ahead of schedule. For individual enterprises, a key question will be how Beijing aims to advance business adoption of green technologies and practices this year.