Americans Voted Differently. Are They Going to Shop Differently?

Since winning the November 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump has made it clear that he plans to change Washington. If fulfilled, his promises—ranging from firing government employees to instituting international tariffs and deporting millions of workers—will likely have a dramatic effect on the way business is done in the United States.

But even as Washington changes, many American businesses are facing an even more critical question: what about their customers? After an election defined by economic issues, will this electoral result change how consumers spend?

Let’s look at what we know.

Perceptions of the Economy

While standard performance indicators suggest the American economy is in a strong position—particularly compared to Western Europe—this election generated ample data to suggest most Americans disagreed. According to publicly available data collected by YouGov, in October of 2024, 47% of registered voters said the economy was getting worse; only half as many said it was getting better (26%). And the U.S. consumer sentiment tracker provided by the University of Michigan suggested that sentiment was still well behind pre-pandemic levels.

These numbers should be taken with a grain of partisan salt, however. The same University of Michigan tracker has reliably shown that perceptions of the economy overall were heavily dependent on which political party is in charge: Republican voters are much happier with a Republican President, and Democrats with a Democrat.

This movement is sometimes hard to see, but suggests that Republicans are suddenly much happier about their economic prospects. While not obvious, this shift could present an opportunity to businesses and advocates that are looking to activate Republican audiences that are suddenly feeling better off financially.

Purchasing Behavior

But do happy consumers end up spending more? Sentiment trackers, such as the University of Michigan’s consumer index, only report individual expectations—not actual behaviors.

In fact, economic and psychology experts appear undecided on the general connection between overall economic perceptions and specific purchasing behavior. A 2022 review by Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta help capture numerous studies trying to answer this very question over the past 20 years: they found various and unpredictable levels of connection between sentiment and behavior.

A more specific study by Atif Mian, Amir Sufi and Nasim Khoshkhou published last year examines the exact effect of American elections more closely. Using consumer confidence and privately collected data on household spending, the authors were able to measure the attitudinal and behavioral responses to an election across highly partisan geographies—and found that Republicans and Democrats aren’t likely to change much at all. Instead, the greatest predictor for spending in a post-election environment is the holiday season.

This mismatch of how people think and how people act can seem like quite the puzzle, and any business should be cautious in overreading these studies. However, it’s a safe assumption that we are unlikely to see a major shift in how consumers are spending their money over the next few months. If elections generated hordes of eager shoppers, we would have likely observed such changes in the past.

These studies also argue that most Americans aren’t wearing their political hats while in the store.  APCO Insight’s consumer and branding experts support this finding through our own work, which has consistently found that brands are built on their own distinct identity and ability to authentically communicate with customers. Despite all the headlines, politics is not a core feature of the day-to-day life for most Americans.

What Should Businesses Expect

As Washington braces for the change of administrations and the potential introduction of disruptors, it’s hard to preach patience. But if past elections are any guide, we shouldn’t be expecting Americans to change how they shop quite yet. Instead, smart companies are going to be planning and preparing for the actual policy changes that could take place in 2025.

So, what does patience look like?

• Tracking the conversations around key decision-making members of the incoming administration.
• Mapping the stakeholders and influencers around your industry and policy challenges.
• Complete research among your customers and stakeholders to better understand their implicit beliefs and likely behaviors that will affect your operations.
• Consider your messaging and campaigns as you navigate a dynamic environment.

As companies analyze and assess the impact of the 2024 U.S. elections, APCO stands ready to assist leaders in developing pathways of engagement to advance their policy, reputational and commercial goals.